Just for Kicks

September 3, 2008 11:58am CDT

Kickers do matter. Ask anyone who happened to own Tennessee’s Rob Bironas in Week 7 last year. All Bironas did was nail eight – that’s right, eight – field goals, altering fantasy matchups worldwide. Getting about 25 points (depending on your league's scoring system) from a kicker changes things drastically.

The trouble is, kickers are insanely hard to predict. The best method is to look at the offense a particular kicker plays for. Baltimore’s Matt Stover has consistently been a solid pick because the Ravens offense was good enough to move 30-yard line to 30-yard line, but not into the end zone. That leaves him with a ton of opportunities. This year the Ravens offense might actually be too, ahem, offensive more than the skinny guy with two different shoes.

Weather Conditions

Because it’s early in the year, cold, rain and wind shouldn’t be too much of a concern around the league. Don’t worry about the game in New Orleans with Hurricane Gustav near; the Saints play in a dome. Places like New England, Buffalo, Philadelphia, New York, etc. that will present weather issues later in the year won’t present those same issues this early in the season.

Venue Trends

Josh Brown was consistently a Rams killer while in Seattle. Now that he's spurned the Seahawks' big money to make even bigger money in St. Louis, how will he respond?

Cincinnati’s Shayne Graham usually has some nightmarish venues to kick in because of his division. The AFC North has two Ohio teams, a team in Pittsburgh and a team in Baltimore, not exactly paradises come winter time. But he’s been one of the league’s best kickers, with eight straight seasons of over 22 field goals made and at least 83 percent success rate. Even with the tough venues, he will be solid again in 2008.

Long Distance Trends

Nick Folk, near-universally tabbed as the top fantasy kicker this season, showed some interesting trends in his first year in 2007. He expectedly struggled from 50-plus yards, making just two of five kicks. He was rock-solid in the middle distances. Here’s the interesting part: He also missed kicks from close range. Folk made just 10 of 12 kicks from 20-29 yards. Folk is young and could change this quickly, just remember when you see the Cowboys stall close to the goal line that it isn’t a guaranteed three points.

Green Bay’s Mason Crosby made just nine of 14 kicks from 40-49 yards last season, usually the bread-and-butter of fantasy kickers. As with Folk, Crosby’s young and could improve drastically. It’s also unknown whether the Packers new offense will work to Crosby’s benefit or detriment.

Since kickers are mostly an unknown to fantasy owners, the owners often go off of name recognition. Example: Neil Rackers. That’s the guy who led the NFL in field goal percentage and nailed five 50-plus yard field goals in 2005. However, that’s also the guy who’s gone four of 16 in 50-plus yard field goal attempts in two years since and made just 70 percent of kicks last year. A consistent kicker would be an intriguing option in Arizona’s offense. With two dominant wide receivers who don't possess gamebreaking speed, the Cardinals are a solid bet to stall in field goal range. But Rackers misses a lot of kicks, so keep that in mind if your league's scoring system penalizes for missed attempts.

Stephen Gostkowski is an interesting case. The Patriots either don’t trust his foot past 50 yards, or their aggressive offense doesn’t have much use for a kicker at that part of the field. In two seasons, Gostkowski has just one attempt over 50 yards (he made it). While the absence of those long-range kicks would usually hurt a fantasy kicker, he makes up for it with the absurd number of extra points he kicks. He nailed 74 extra point kicks last year, 21 more than the second place kicker (Folk).

Struggling Offenses

Bironas will thrive in Tennessee again. The Titans refuse to add a big-time receiver for Vince Young to throw to, and with a good defense, the team should be involved in quite a few low-scoring, ugly games. That leaves Bironas as a good bet to get chances to kick. He was slowed by a groin injury in the preseason, but the team released their backup, signaling Bironas is ready to go.

Josh Brown of the Rams seems to be a good option. While the Rams won’t be the trainwreck of last season, they won’t be the air show of earlier this decade either. With Steven Jackson, Torry Holt and Marc Bulger, the offense will be able to move the chains, but it could also struggle to end drives.

The Jets were the perfect example of a kicker’s dream in 2007. They could move the ball with Chad Pennington’s short tosses and Thomas Jones' short runs, but they didn’t score many touchdowns. Brett Favre and Alan Faneca will change that somewhat, but this team isn’t suddenly playoff bound. Don’t write off kicker Mike Nugent, who was tied for second in field goals attempted in 2007 (36).

Tampa Bay’s Matt Bryant will benefit from a decent offense that struggles to score touchdowns. He was ninth in field goal attempts with 33 last season, and the Bucs didn’t do much to change their offense for 2008. He’s got nothing from 50-plus yards (two for seven the past three seasons), but he’s money from 30-39 yards (22-for-22 past the three seasons).