Frozen Pucks - Draft Preview

September 25, 2008 6:25pm CDT

I'm heading into the industry's biggest fantasy hockey draft tonight for a showdown replete with some of the best minds in the industry. Hopefully I won't embarrass myself and our company, but then again, how could I, right? While doing some research for the draft, I thought I would pass on some of the info I came across in respect to where players are being drafted according to Average Draft Position Data.

***We would like to thank Mock Draft Central for providing the ADP material for this article.


WHO IS #1?
The top selection this year has been Sidney Crosby (1.41 ADP), just barely ahead of Alexander Ovechkin (1.67). Every draft at MDC has had one or the other of this duo going first and the other second, hardly a shock given their respective resumes.

Crosby scored 102 points his first season and followed that up with 120 points in his second campaign. Last year he was limited to 53 games due to injury, but with 72 points, he produced at a rate that would have equated to 111 points in a full season of games. Ovechkin is coming off one of the best seasons in league history for a left wing after scoring 65 goals, 22 on the power-play, and 112 points (he also tossed in a + 28 rating). AO racked up an amazing 26 goals in his last 32 games and seems primed to make a run at 70 goals.

You can't go wrong with either pick, though Ovechkin's goal scoring exploits might give him the slight lead.


WHO IS #3

After the duo of Batman and Robin at the top, selections that my brother's one-year-old daughter could probably make, the field is wide open with a plethora of high scoring forward options and a choice of any keeper in the league highlighting the potentials at the third spot. Surprisingly though, the No. 3 guy in early returns is a guy who patrols the blue line and wears a big "C" on his chest, not the captain's "C" mind you, but the Calgary Flames one.

Dion Phaneuf is currently being selected third overall. Over each of his first three NHL seasons, Phaneuf's assist, point, plus/minus and PIM totals have grown, culminating in last year's wicked good performance of 17 goals (10 on the power-play), 60 points, 182 PIM and a +12. To put those numbers in perspective, he was second amongst blue liners in goals, fifth in points, first in PIM and tied for first in power-play goals. It's easy to see why the guy is going off boards as the first defensemen taken, but it is a bit surprising that he is going third overall.


THE OVERVALUED DEFENSEMEN
After Phaneuf, the next defensemen being selected, broken proboscis and all, is the Wings' Nicklas Lidstrom. Cleary this all-time great isn't being overvalued, but the same may not be said about the third defensemen going off draft boards, with and ADP Of 12.04, in the Capitals Mike Green.

Green led all defensemen last season with 18 goals, so how is it that he is being overvalued? There are multiple reasons. First off, Green entered last season with a total of three goals in his first 92 NHL games, and though he was a first-round draft pick in 2004, his breakout campaign last year was pretty stupendous. Can he follow up that effort? Secondly, despite all those goals, Green scored only one time over his final 17 regular season games. In addition, he pumped in six goals in just seven games in early January, meaning he scored just 12 times in his other 75 games. Not exactly the type of consistency that one looks for in a top pick. Thirdly, though he scored all those goals and ranked seventh in points (56), his plus/minus was just +6, while he added 62 PIM, making him a fairly top heavy performer. And Fourthly, does it really make sense to draft Green at the end of the first round when you can roster a guy like Brian Campbell, who scored more points (62) with a higher total on the power-play, as well, (33 to 23) a full four rounds later in a 12-team draft (Campbell's ADP is 61.1)? Seems like a whole lot of people are going for a guy with one big year versus other skaters with more established track records.


THE UNDERVALUED GOALIE
Do you know which goalie racked up more saves (2,033) last year than any other, yet is still being drafted 11th at the goalie position this season? Try Tomas Vokoun of the Panthers. Certainly the Panthers are far from being a powerhouse in the league, but does Vokoun really deserve to be drafted as barely a starter in most leagues? Consider the following data points:

(1) Besides leading the league in saves, he also led the league in shots faced (2,213) last season, which led to a .919 SV% which was, oddly enough, his 11th overall last season.

(2) His total of four shutouts tied for fifth in the league.

(3) Vokoun has averaged 32 victories per season the past four years, which is a better average than Carey Price has ever had in a season (he had 24 wins in his rookie season), and just one fewer victory than the career-best total of 33 that Niklas Backstrom posted last year.

Truth be told, there is a pretty solid group of about 15 goalies to chose from this year, so make sure you grab at least one, and if you get two, you will be way out in front.


QUICK HITTERS
Ilya Kovalchuk scored 52 goals last season, second in the league, and has averaged 47 goals per year the past four years. With all that scoring, isn't it a bit odd to see him with an ADP mark of 27.3? It must be the terrible team around him that has people nervous.


Jason Spezza is another high scoring player who is falling with an ADP of 29.4. Spezza has averaged 34 goals the past two seasons and 90 points per year the past three seasons. Given that massive level of production considering he averaged just 70 games per season, how in the hell is he being selected after Brad Richards (27.2 ADP)? Richards is certainly a nice player, but over the past three seasons he has averaged 23 goals and 74 points. Toss in the fact that Spezza will skate with either Dany Heatley or Daniel Alfredsson, and it's pretty clear who should be the first guy taken out of this duo.


Eric Staal is another guy who is inexplicably falling with an ADP of 43.63. Staal may be falling prey to the fact that he scored 100 points three years ago but hasn't returned to that level in either of the past two seasons with 70 and 82 points. Still, the guy is just 24 years old and has averaged 38 goals and 84 points the past three years. Given his age, makeup, and the rebound he offered last season, he sure seems to be better than the 14th center being chosen, especially since he has fallen behind guys like Nathan Horton (35.2), Mike Richards (38.6) and Johan Franzen (40.0). All of those three skaters are solid options, but none of them has a track record remotely close to what Staal brings to the table.


Horton will skate on the first line this year in Florida and is being asked to make up for the loss of Olli Jokinen. Even though he has averaged 29 goals the past three seasons, Horton has only averaged 62 points the past two seasons and has a lot to prove. Richards was tremendous last season, but he still scored only 28 goals and his total of 75 points is behind Staal's average the past three years. And Franzen looked like the best player ever in the postseason when he racked up 13 goals in 16 games, that after scoring 27 goals in the regular season. Though he is slated to skate with Henrik Zetterberg, Franzen has not even a semblance of the track record of Staal, making his earlier selection a bit of a risk.


Hopefully this brief discussion of early season draft returns has got your fires a burning for the upcoming season. Don't forget we have on sale our spectacular NHL 2008 NHL Draft Guide , so click on the link if you want to get your fill of fantasy hockey draft advice.