Fantasy Football Impact Report: Lee Evans

September 1, 2008 12:38pm CDT

Since joining the Buffalo Bills organization in 2004, Lee Evans has led all Bills receiving options (with a minimum of two receptions) in TDs and yards per reception. Despite a suspect quarterback carousel that has gone round and round in Buffalo, Evans has managed to stay relatively consistent. Unfortunately for Buffalo fans and Lee Evans owners, the Bills will once again put the hopes of the franchise into the hands of quarterback Trent Edwards. If Edwards, who enters just his second season in the NFL, can stay healthy and consistent, Evans owners could expect solid numbers from the former Badger. Heading into the ’08 season, Evans ranking among all wideouts should hover around the top-20 mark and fantasy owners should consider him a decent No. 2 receiver.

NFL CAREER
2004: In his rookie season with the Bills, Evans played in all 16 regular season games and tallied 48 receptions for 843 yards and nine TDs. Evans averaged 17.6 yards per reception and his nine touchdown receptions led all Bills receivers.

2005: Again second in the starting lineup opposite Eric Moulds, Evans finished the ’05 season with 48 receptions for 743 yards and seven receiving TDs. His 15.5 yards per reception were tops among receiving options in Buffalo.

2006: The departure of Moulds cleared way for Evans to be the No.1 wideout in Buffalo. He set career marks in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1,292) and managed to find the end zone on eight occasions.

2007: For a No.1 receiver, Evans' numbers in his fourth season were quite disappointing. The Bills offense threw for a measly 12 total passing scores and Evans was on the receiving end for five of them. He finished the ’07 season with 55 receptions for 849 yards.

TEAM SCENARIO
As if the Bills needed any more problems to worry about in the AFC East (uh, the 16-0 Patriots), they can now add to that list having to deal with future Hall of Famer Brett Favre in a Jets uniform twice in ’08. Favre’s addition to the Jets starting lineup has instantly elevated the Jets to playoff contenders, which certainly spell bad news for a Bills team who managed to win only seven games last season.

In just his second season at the professional level, Bills QB Trent Edwards looks to build on a rather unimpressive rookie campaign that started to show signs of life towards the end of the season. Last season, Edwards saw action in only 10 games and threw for 151 competitions for 1,630 yards and seven scores. In his last five starts, Edwards threw for six TDs and three INTs, as opposed to his first five appearances in which he threw for only one score and five picks. Even though he has only a handful of inconsistent starts under his belt, Edwards enters the ’08 season as the Bills starting quarterback. Last year's opening day starting QB, J.P. Losman, will serve as the backup after a disappointing ’07 season in which he threw six INTs and lost two fumbles in only eight games. Edwards has little fantasy value and should be considered only as a bye week replacement, at best.

The Buffalo Bills offense will once again revolve around Marshawn Lynch and the running game. Despite missing three games with an ankle injury, Lynch posted solid numbers in his rookie season and finished ’07 with 1,115 rushing yards and seven trips to the end zone. With so much inexperience at the QB position, the Bills will once again lean heavily on the second-year back out of Cal.

In hopes of adding depth to a receiving core that has lacked strength and skill over the past couple seasons, the Bills drafted rookie wideout James Hardy in the second round in the Entry Draft. Hardy’s 6-foot-7 frame should make him an instant target near the red zone, and his ability to get open should make Edwards' job a little easier. Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish will likely be used out of the slot, but neither has the skill or talent to keep defensive coordinators awake at night. Lee Evans will once again be Trent Edwards' most consistent receiving option and the team's No. 1 wideout

2008 UPSIDE
My fellow fantasy football patrons, let's examine Exhibit A.

Exhibit A. (the top three scoring receivers for the Bills the past three seasons)
2007: Lee Evans (5), Robert Royal (3), Michael Gaines (2)
2006: Lee Evans (8), Peerless Price/Robert Royal (3), Josh Reed/Roscoe Parrish (2)
2005: Lee Evans (7), Eric Moulds (4), Josh Reed (2)

So what do these numbers prove besides the fact that the Bills passing game has been rather sad since the departure of Mr. Bledsoe? That Lee Evans is the man in Buffalo! He has hands down been the best receiving option in Buffalo since leaving Madison in ’04. The team's No. 2 wide out, Josh Reed, is a solid second receiver in the NFL, but he hasn’t posted good enough numbers to be considered a fantasy option. The addition of rookie James Hardy should help the Bills passing game, as his size seems to be a nice fit with Evans speed. The Bills are hoping to utilize Hardy as a middle of the field target and alleviate some of the double coverage Evans faced much of last season.

2008 DOWNSIDE
The man who will be throwing Evans the ball and determining whether or not he has a successful season is Trent Edwards, which doesn't exactly give owners a ton of confidence. Even Edwards' positive numbers are misleading. Four of his seven TDs tosses came in Week 14 against the then winless Miami Dolphins. Not only does Edwards lack experience and consistency, but Losman, his backup, does too. Despite a fairly successful ’06 season in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and 19 TDs, Losman ’07 campaign failed to live up to the hype. Only time will tell if Edwards can lead the Bills to a .500 or better record and be the guy the organization envisions him as, but as of right now, his inconsistency and lack of experience diminishes the value of all Buffalo receivers, including Evans.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
So what can fantasy owners expect this season from the Bills' No.1 wideout? If Edwards finds his groove and manages to stay healthy, it’s likely that Evans will certainly have a better season than last. Heading into Week 1, consider Evans in the same class as Green Bay’s Greg Jennings and Detroit’s Roy Williams. The Bills new offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert, has reportedly added more play-action passing plays, which is a step up from the conservative scheme the Bills had last season. There’s no question that Evans is a big-play receiver, but due to the QB situation in Buffalo, consider Evans a WR2 at best and high-end WR3, at worst.