Roush's Guest House

August 28, 2008 11:55am CDT

The two-mile tracks of Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway have a lot in common. Identical in shape and similar in overall configuration, the track in California was built from the blueprint of its older cousin and so it comes as no surprise that drivers who run well on one, excel on the other. Especially in the fall, the proximity of the races on these tracks ensures that intangibles like momentum and the makeup of the crew are the same, which is great news for fantasy owners looking for a nice, predictable race.

Start with a lineup that looks a lot like the one that was successful at Michigan for the 3M Performance 400, but remember that Auto Club is a different track. Roush racers should anchor your roster again this week, but they are less likely to sweep the top 10 as other marquee drivers have their own legacy of strength in California.

The longstanding powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports is tied with Roush in terms of overall victories at Auto Club, with three for Jeff Gordon, two for Jimmie Johnson and one with Kyle Busch for a total of six. Roush has victories with Matt Kenseth earning two plus one apiece for Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Mark Martin and Kurt Busch. Both owners are more than capable of taking sole possession of the top spot following the Pepsi 500.

This year, Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) has risen to the level of Roush and Hendrick, which means that Kyle Busch has an excellent opportunity to challenge for the victory as well and the winner this week is not going to come as a surprise.

The Favorites
Edwards is going to be the obvious favorite of most fantasy owners. He's near-perfect on the two-mile tracks with one poor finish each at Auto Club and Michigan and back-to-back victories in the last two races of 2008 to give him momentum entering the weekend. Other than a 29th-place finish on this track last spring, he's finished sixth or better in every attempt he's made at Auto Club. Better still, one of his three victories in the last four weeks came on the sister track of Michigan. Winning three consecutive races in NASCAR is incredibly difficult, but if he misses it won't be by much.

On this track, in recent years, Kenseth has been just as strong as Edwards. In his last six attempts at Auto Club, he has two victories, three top-fives and a worst finish of seventh. In fact, he has an odd little record of three consecutive seventh-place finishes in the Labor Day race and if fantasy owners knew they were guaranteed another such result, he would certainly be worth his salary cap. More likely, seventh is the worst case scenario for the No. 17 this week and the upside of starting him is immense.

This week, however, it is not as simple as filling your roster with Roushketeers and forgetting about the rest of the field. Hendrick Motorsports has been incredibly strong on this track with Johnson and Gordon leading the way. The driver of the No. 48 has had a rough couple of weeks after sustaining crash damage at both Michigan and Bristol to finish outside the top 15 and the team needs to build some momentum to take into the Chase. This is a great place to get it because Johnson has finishes of third, first and second in his last three attempts. In 11 starts there, he has never finished worse than 16th, but his record is still a little uneven. He has seven finishes of third or better compared to four results of 11th or worse, so there is no middle ground for Johnson.

Dark Horses
Under other circumstances, Gordon would be a favorite at Auto Club. His three victories there lead the league and three of his last four races there have ended in top-fives, but fantasy owners are still shell shocked by how badly he's run during the summer months. Their hope lies in two facts, however; Gordon was strong at Michigan before he cut a tire and slammed the wall and he had a top-three car for most of the night at Bristol. If he fits a niche on your roster give him the start, but don't mortgage the rest of the lineup to make room.

Like Johnson, Kasey Kahne is another driver who experienced back-to-back problems at Michigan and Bristol, but his tribulations were much more severe. A blown engine on the two-mile track and a crash on the short course sent him home 40th in both and has left him clinging to the top 12 in points by a very brittle fingernail. Unless the tide has completely turned on this team, Auto Club should provide much needed relief. In his last six races there, he has accumulated one victory and five top-10s. He's run into trouble on this two-miler twice in his career, but when he's been running at the end of the race he's swept the top 15 and has an average result of 6.4.

Truer dark horses may be found further down the salary cap pricelist. Brian Vickers has been strong on the two-mile tracks since he joined Red Bull Racing, even while he's struggled elsewhere. Last year, three of his four races at Auto Club and Michigan ended in top-10 finishes; this year, he's finished 11th, fourth and seventh in three tries. Two weeks ago he won the pole and had a car capable of leading at Michigan during portions of the race. A rising tide brings up all ships in the harbor, so you should also pay attention to A.J. Allmendinger this week, although he shouldn't automatically be added to your roster before practice is complete.

Kurt Busch is having a miserable year, but he should get a brief reprieve this week. Last year, he swept the top 10 on this track, but he's occasionally been great at Auto Club. In 2002 and 2003 he finished second and first respectively. He added another third-place finish in 2005, and while he is almost certainly not going to add another top-five to his resume, a 13th like he scored in February's race would still make him a good value at his salary cap level.

Fantasy Power Ranking:
Two-mile tracks Last Three Years

Driver, Power Average*

Jimmie Johnson, 6.27
Carl Edwards, 6.37
Kyle Busch, 6.90
Matt Kenseth, 8.04
Jeff Gordon, 8.66
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 10.49
Tony Stewart, 11.42
Greg Biffle, 11.48
Brian Vickers, 13.11
Kurt Busch, 13.60
Jeff Burton, 14.13
Kasey Kahne, 14.54
Martin Truex Jr., 14.54
Denny Hamlin, 15.23
Kevin Harvick, 16.16
David Ragan, 18.30
Clint Bowyer, 20.40
Casey Mears, 20.85
Jamie McMurray, 22.49
Ryan Newman, 23.43
Patrick Carpentier, 23.76
Elliott Sadler, 24.32
David Reutimann, 26.53
Travis Kvapil, 26.96
Bobby Labonte, 27.43
Michael Waltrip, 27.73
Robby Gordon, 28.51
Paul Menard, 28.56
Sam Hornish Jr., 29.04
Dave Blaney, 29.05
Reed Sorenson, 29.05
A.J. Allmendinger, 29.11
David Gilliland, 29.22
Joe Nemechek, 29.85
Scott Riggs, 30.51
Johnny Sauter, 32.06
Juan Montoya, 32.47
Ken Schrader, 33.40
Marcos Ambrose, 33.45
Kyle Petty, 33.96
Aric Almirola, 35.00
Tony Raines, 35.19
Regan Smith, 35.79
Mike Skinner, 37.63
Brad Coleman, 38.78

* The Power Average is the average finish during the last three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series is also factored in, as is his average running position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).

The two-mile tracks are Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway.