Progressively Better

August 21, 2008 1:35pm CDT

Fans may have been shocked when Bristol Motor Speedway decided to add progressive banking to a track that regularly held some of the best races of the year, but when the cars hit the track this spring, they were pleasantly surprised. Somehow track officials found a way to make a good thing better and the half-mile bullring now featured side by side racing for multiple laps.

The racing is more exciting than ever now and trickier too as Jimmie Johnson discovered during the Craftsman Truck Series race on Wednesday night when he battled door post to door post with the lapped truck of Jon Wood for several circuits before he got behind on his steering. He caught his truck, lost it, caught it, lost if, caught it and eventually looped in front of Jeff Green and Ken Schrader and ended his night. Fans will see even more action like that on Saturday night as seven more cars circle the track at faster speeds.

The new body style will probably improve the competition as well. These cars are stable and durable, which means that casual contact won't accomplish the bump-and-run—a driver is going to have to bang on the bumper pretty hard to get his competitor out of shape, or alternatively pull to the outside and legitimately make the pass—and contact with the outside wall will not necessarily end a driver's night. If you need proof, rewind the DVR to Darlington Raceway this spring and watch Kyle Busch bounce off the wall on several occasion en route to victory lane.

Passing is always a god thing, and with the Chase only three weeks away, drivers on the cusp of falling out of the top 12 in points will take a little consolation in the improved resilience of the car, but make no mistake: this is still Bristol where trouble lurks around every corner and with laps taking 20 seconds to complete, calamity is never far away.

The Favorites
Bad calls have cost Dale Earnhardt Jr. a shot at victory lane in back-to-back weeks. He was stranded on track when the caution waved at Watkins Glen International and last week, his old tires were not up to the task at Michigan International Speedway. This week should provide relief, however, because Bristol has been one of his Islands in the Storm. He counts his victory in the 2004 August night race as one of his most prized possessions because of how well his father ran on this same track, and while Junior hasn't logged as many victories as Senior, he's been extremely consistent in this age of parity. Since the start of the 2002 season, Earnhardt has finished worse than 11th only once and in those 13 races he's earned 10 top-10s and averaged a finish of 6.8.

Greg Biffle might not be the first name that comes to mind on the short tracks, but that will only serve to differentiate your roster from the competition. This track is traditionally rough on rookies, but he earned a fifth-place finish in his first start there in 2003 and he's rarely stumbled since. In 11 career starts on this bullring, Biffle has finished outside the top 15 only twice. As one gets closer to the present day, the numbers only get better and he has six top-10s in his last seven starts and two top-fives in his last three races. In fact, in terms of average finishes Bristol tops his list at 9.7.

By the numbers, these two drivers stand head and shoulders above the rest in terms of current active streaks, but Matt Kenseth cannot be overlooked. Last year he failed in his bid for three consecutive August night race victories at Bristol when he was collected in an accident triggered by Johnson and Dale Jarrett. Kenseth was running only about 15th before the incident, but his tendency is to come on strong at the end of races and sneak up on the competition, so even with a modest run, his chances for victory couldn't be ignored. With a fifth-place finish at Michigan, he has some momentum on his side and with Auto Club Speedway next on the schedule, he could be a great place-and-hold driver.

Dark Horses
O.k., last week we said we were going to stop predicting Jeff Gordon's finishes for a while, but it's hard to come to Bristol and not mention a driver with five victories. The most frustrating thing about last week's accident at Michigan was that it came after the driver was finally happy with his car and for the first time in several months, he did not spend the entire race complaining about the handle. In this spring's Bristol race, Gordon finished just outside the top 10 in 11th, but he's been stout on the other short tracks with a second at Martinsville Speedway and a ninth at Richmond International Raceway as well as a fifth on the big sister concrete course of Dover International Speedway, so this could be the week he gets the monkey off his back.

With as many top-15s as Jeff Burton started the 2008 season with, it will come as little surprise that he's been consistent on the concrete high banks. In his last nine races at Dover and Bristol combined, Burton has a worst result of 12th, a victory on each track and an average finish of 6.2. His victory at Bristol came this spring, which makes him the most recent winner there and that always adds to a driver's confidence. Burton would be an outright favorite if not for a general softening of his results in recent weeks. He hasn't earned a top-five in the last nine races, but that could change after the Sharpie 500 is completed.

Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch remain the two hottest drivers on the circuit with their first- and second-place finishes in last week's 3M Performance 400 by Bondo. Between them, they have won five of the last six races and when they have missed it is often not by much as evidenced by three more second-place finishes during that span. Both drivers get relegated to dark horse status this week, however, because of relatively weak performances in this spring's Food City 500. Edwards finished 16th in that race with Busch 17th and neither was much of a threat to win.

Red Flag
Despite his 17th-place finish at Michigan, Johnson remains the third hottest driver in the field and he is the only other racer to win in the last six weeks. In addition to his victory at Indy, he was second at Chicagoland Speedway and third at Pocono Raceway, but Bristol has eluded him. He has not had a top-five finish there in more than three years and with only two top-10s in his last seven attempts, his average finish is a paltry 19.6 during the last seven races. He hoped to get some track time in the Craftsman Truck Series race on Wednesday night, but triggered his own crash midway through that event, which does not recommend him with fantasy points on the line.

This week, we will also wave a red flag over Tony Stewart. With the possibility of his lame duck status slowing his efforts and a generally disappointing record at Bristol in recent seasons, he is simply not worth the risk. He won the 2001 August night race, but in 13 events since then he has only three top-10s and an average finish of 17.6. In that span, he's finished outside the top 30 only once, which means he's been mostly mid-pack with very few solid runs that will supply a good set of notes.

Fantasy Power Ranking:
Short track Last Three Years

Driver, Power Average*

Jeff Gordon, 6.86
Tony Stewart, 8.49
Kyle Busch, 8.66
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 8.68
Denny Hamlin, 8.76
Kevin Harvick, 9.28
Jimmie Johnson, 11.10
Clint Bowyer, 13.79
Jeff Burton, 14.29
Matt Kenseth, 14.40
Carl Edwards, 14.45
Ryan Newman, 14.69
Kasey Kahne, 15.65
Kurt Busch, 16.11
Greg Biffle, 16.16
Juan Montoya, 21.92
Martin Truex Jr., 21.97
David Ragan, 22.02
Jamie McMurray, 22.57
Bobby Labonte, 22.76
Elliott Sadler, 24.04
Casey Mears, 24.53
Ken Schrader, 25.17
Dave Blaney, 25.96
Jeff Green, 26.37
David Reutimann, 26.39
Scott Riggs, 26.67
Aric Almirola, 27.89
Reed Sorenson, 27.96
Brian Vickers, 28.31
Travis Kvapil, 28.70
Johnny Sauter, 29.00
Tony Raines, 29.43
Regan Smith, 31.86
Patrick Carpentier, 32.07
Paul Menard, 32.07
Kyle Petty, 32.26
Sterling Marlin, 32.69
Michael Waltrip, 33.01
David Gilliland, 33.16
Joe Nemechek, 34.21
Robby Gordon, 34.99
Sam Hornish Jr., 35.23
Mike Skinner, 35.52
A.J. Allmendinger, 35.55
Bill Elliott, 36.94
Stanton Barrett, 41.38

* The Power Average is the average finish during the last three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series is also factored in, as is his average running position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).

The short tracks are Bristol Motor Speedway. Martinsville Speedway and Richmond International Raceway.