Fallen Warrior

August 27, 2008 4:12pm CDT

It’s been an eventful summer for the Golden State Warriors. They’ve had ups and they’ve had downs. But nowhere in their plans did they foresee the most recent news. Guard Monta Ellis injured his ankle last week and is scheduled to undergo surgery on Wednesday.

According to ESPN.com, Ellis tore a deltoid ligament in his left ankle. His foot will be immobilized for six weeks, and he will miss at least three months of action. He could be out longer.

A three-month window points to a return in late November. The Warriors have a five-game road trip in the last week of November and will be back home on December 1. If we use that convenient date for Ellis’ season debut, he will have missed 17 contests.

Thanks to the departure of Baron Davis and a fat new deal, Ellis was due to take over a larger role in the Warriors offense next season. He averaged 20.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 steals while shooting 53.1 percent in 2007-08. With more control of the offense, Ellis was in a position to become a coveted 20-5-5 fantasy talent. He would have likely entered 2008-09 as a top-30 fantasy pick.

The projection that Ellis will miss between one-fifth and one-quarter of the season obviously drops him down the rankings. The ideal model for him to follow would be the Pau Gasol situation of 2006-07. The then-Grizzlies big man missed the opening 19 games while recovering from a broken foot. Gasol went on to average career highs in points (20.8), rebounds (9.9), and blocks (2.1) while shooting 53.1 percent from the floor.

The obvious difference between Ellis and Gasol is that the guard relies more heavily on his cutting and quickness. He could have a more difficult time coming off ankle surgery than the center did coming back from a busted foot.

Ellis will likely drop down into the 50-to-55 range of the rankings. Once the guards begin to look a little boring, fantasy owners will take a chance with this talented 22-year-old. He is worth the wait once you have four or five solid building blocks to help you navigate the opening month or so of the fantasy campaign.

What happens while Ellis is out?

That may be the more interesting question. The Warriors currently still have a core group of Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, Andris Biedrins, and (for now) Al Harrington. The huge beneficiary of this injury could turn out to be point guard Marcus Williams.

The Warriors acquired Williams from the Nets in July in return for a future first-round pick. This former Connecticut star started only nine games during his two seasons in New Jersey, but the results were decent: 11.8 points, 6.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.7 threes over 31 minutes.

During his college days, Williams was known for his intelligence and court vision – at least on the court. We won’t recall what he was known for away from the hardwood. If he shows up to Warriors camp in good shape and with a chip on his shoulder, he could be a fantasy steal early in the year. In theory, running alongside a versatile, athletic group that includes Jackson, Maggette and Harrington should provide for plenty of assist and three-point chances.

Williams should face a challenge from C.J. Watson, and that could be a battle to keep an eye on in training camp. There’s a good chance that fantasy owners will find a nice late-round guard who can help them rack up decent numbers for 15-20 games.