Wild Cards

July 3, 2008 11:00am CDT

Fantasy owners have grown to expect a certain amount of uncertainty on the road courses and restrictor-plate superspeedways. On the twisty tracks, one wrong move can drop a driver from contention for the win to the back of the pack—just ask Kevin Harvick after this year's duel at Infineon Raceway—and the capriciousness of the draft can do the same thing on the plate tracks. Additionally, there is always the threat of a "Big One" crash at Daytona International Speedway and Talladega SuperSpeedway with drafting packs that encompass nearly the entire field, so fantasy owners grit their teeth and hope for the best—pretty much the same as the drivers.

Last week should have been the eye of the storm. A short, flat track like New Hampshire Motor Speedway is often predictable and most of the favorites entered the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 with long streaks of top-10s on that track type. When a thunderstorm rolled over the track in the closing laps, however, the finishing order was turned on its head.

The winner, Kurt Busch had not cracked the top 10 before his late-race gamble and the second- and third-place drivers Michael Waltrip and J.J. Yeley had not been any higher than 19th in the race. Risk takers dominated the top 10 and it allowed several drivers who had been outside that mark to break long negative streaks. In addition to Waltrip and Yeley (who had gone without a top-10 in 21 and 25 races respectively), Bobby Labonte snapped a 28-race streak of poor results and Reed Sorenson earned his first top-10 in 14 races dating back to the season opening Daytona 500.

The Coke Zero 400 will be just as unpredictable. Often a plate race is punctuated by several cautions while the field waits for the big exclamation point that is a multi-car crash. On the other hand, races at Daytona and Talladega can also be largely incident free, which is not to say they are any more predictable. A driver leading the pack on one lap can drop to the back in the blink of an eye if he makes the wrong lane choice and gets hung out to dry.

Streaky

In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to string top-10 finishes together either at Daytona alone or on the two restrictor-plate superspeedways combined. Only four drivers enter this weekend with back-to-back top-10s at Daytona and only one has three consecutive finishes that strong. With the exception of Kyle Busch, they are not racers who have dominated fantasy rosters this year, but Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne have made themselves drivers to watch.

Both of the Busch brothers have back-to-back top-fives to their credit at Daytona and they both have three top-fives in the last four races on this track. The elder sibling, Kurt needed a little help from Mother Nature last week, but with seven results of fourth or better in his last 13 Daytona races, her intervention won't be needed on Saturday night. The younger brother, Kyle has been the hottest driver in the game this season, and while he hasn't won on this track yet, he came close with a pair of runner-up finishes during the last two years. He also proved his plate track prowess by winning at Talladega this spring.

Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne have not cracked the top-five at Daytona in recent weeks, but if they can guarantee a top-10 finish, it's worth spending your hard-earned salary cap. Biffle won a fuel mileage contest in the July 2003 Pepsi 400 and then went seven races without another top-10 before finding the groove in last year's edition of this race to finish sixth. Kahne has never cracked the top 10 at Daytona, but with a seventh-place finish in each of the last two Daytona 500s and a ninth in this race last year, he's been the model of consistency.

Kahne also has the best three-year average finish on this track, with a 12.5 in his last six attempts. Proof that is not a fluke can be found in the fact that his teammate Elliott Sadler has the second-best average during that same span with a 12.7 and his streak of top-10s was interrupted by a single poor result in last year's Pepsi 400. Otherwise, Sadler has finished sixth or better in four of his last five efforts.

With three consecutive top-10s at Talladega and Daytona combined, Ryan Newman is another driver who should be on most fantasy owner's radar screens this week since. He is one of only three drivers to record quality finishes in both plate races of 2008 and enters the weekend as the defending Daytona 500 champ.

Kyle Busch has already been mentioned as the other driver with a pair of plate track top-10s this season and the third is a more conventional favorite on the big tracks. Dale Earnhardt Jr. lost a lot of his mystique in the final seasons with DEI, but he's go his mojo back and finished ninth in the Daytona 500 and 10th in the Aaron's 499.

The other usual suspects have each struggled this year. Jeff Gordon finished 39th in the 500 and 19th at Talladega, Jimmie Johnson was 27th and 13th in those same races, and while Tony Stewart finished third in this year's Daytona 500, he's sustained crash damage in five of his last seven restrictor-plate races, including a 38th in this year's Aaron's 499.

Dark Horses

The best advice on plate tracks is often to spread your money evenly through the lineup, because Fate does not discriminate between the superteams and the "also rans." When a "Big One" crash erupts, it can eliminate the driver running third as easily as the driver running 33rd.

The word "patience" is not commonly associated with Robby Gordon, but that defines him at Daytona. He holds a steady wheel and has been able to stay out of trouble for the past three seasons. Since the beginning of 2006, he has swept the top-15 on this track and jumped into the top 10 with an eighth this February. He backed that up with an 11th at Talladega in April.

Robert Yates Racing makes a ton of horsepower for the plate races and while both of his drivers ran into trouble at Daytona this spring to finish outside the top 25, Travis Kvapil bounced back with a sixth at Talladega and David Gilliland finished 15th there. In fact, the driver of the No. 38 started his career on this track type with four consecutive top-15s of which one was a top-five and another of Gilliland's best races was a top-10 in the 2007 Daytona 500.

Brian Vickers had trouble qualifying on the big tracks in 2007 and when he was in the show disaster found him, but things are different in 2008. In his last year with Hendrick Motorsports, he earned three top-10s and an 18th in four plate races. His final attempt on this track type for that team ended in his one, and so far only, victory at Talladega and he proved that wasn't a fluke with a 12th-place finish in this year's Daytona 500. On the other plate track in Alabama, he finished fifth in the Aaron's 499.

Bargain basement dark horses this week include Boris Said who finished fourth in this race in 2006 after sitting on the pole and Sterling Marlin with three Daytona victories plus two more at Talladega. He's driving the lightly funded James Finch No. 09 this week, but that team has turned in some remarkable runs in their limited outing on the big tracks.

Fantasy Power Ranking:
Superspeedways
Last Three Years

Driver, Power Average*

Tony Stewart, 8.70
Ryan Newman, 9.33
Jimmie Johnson, 10.31
Kyle Busch, 10.40
Jeff Gordon, 10.88
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 11.10
Kurt Busch, 11.15
Matt Kenseth, 11.85
Denny Hamlin, 12.36
Brian Vickers, 13.83
Jeff Burton, 14.37
Jamie McMurray, 14.64
Elliott Sadler, 14.96
Kevin Harvick, 15.14
Kasey Kahne, 16.10
Mark Martin, 16.63
Carl Edwards, 16.70
Martin Truex Jr., 17.57
Greg Biffle, 17.88
Casey Mears, 18.22
David Ragan, 18.60
Juan Montoya, 19.09
Clint Bowyer, 19.81
David Gilliland, 20.30
Sam Hornish Jr., 22.06
Reed Sorenson, 22.28
Dave Blaney, 22.82
Michael Waltrip, 22.98
Johnny Sauter, 23.48
David Reutimann, 23.80
Travis Kvapil, 23.90
Boris Said, 24.15
Joe Nemechek, 24.74
Sterling Marlin, 24.79
Bobby Labonte, 25.04
J.J. Yeley, 25.24
Robby Gordon, 26.17
Regan Smith, 26.59
Scott Riggs, 27.21
Michael McDowell, 27.43
Paul Menard, 27.52
Terry Labonte, 29.14
Patrick Carpentier, 31.73
A.J. Allmendinger, 32.79
Jon Wood, 35.88

* The Power Average is the average finish during the last three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. A driver's recent record in the support series is also factored in, as is his average running position as provided by NASCAR Statistical Services. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).

The restrictor-plate superspeedways are Daytona International Speedway and Talladega SuperSpeedway.