The Early Bird Gets The Worm

July 18, 2008 7:01pm CDT

For years, fantasy owners have been absolutely adamant about holding their seasonal fantasy football drafts as close to the start of the regular season as possible, and with good reason I guess.

A lot of folks that drafted "early" in 2004 got burned when Ricky Williams decided to bolt right before the season started. And, of course, there are always quite a few injuries throughout July and August that greatly affect the outcome of fantasy football leagues. Anquan Boldin was knocked out for half of the 2004 season due to a training camp leg injury, and the now infamous Clinton Portis tackle on an interception return during the Redskins' first preseason game in 2006 eventually led to an early trip to injured reserve for him, leaving his owners reeling due to the fact that, at the time, he was a top-five pick.

So, you would think that most owners who sign up to play in the Fantasy Football Open Championship at FFOC.com would choose to draft as late as possible, but I have a serious feeling that an early bird will get the worm this season.

That's right. Someone will turn $125 into $1,000,000, and my money is on the fact that it'll be someone who goes against the grain and decides to draft in July.

For every disaster story about fantasy owners drafting early and getting screwed by injuries or decisions by a coach or player, there are success stories about fantasy owners stealing phenomenal talent in the mid-to-late rounds - talent that others were "scared away from" for one reason or another, be it injury concerns, off-the-field issues or unclear position battles.

Take 2005, when Terrell Owens and Hines Ward were having contract squabbles prior to absolutely lighting up the scoreboard. Or in 2007 when there were rumors that Kevin Jones wouldn't be ready to play at all due to a lisfranc injury. Expect there to be at least a handful of those instances in 2008.

Fantasy owners will be able to strategically choose to draft in July while contract situations with players like Ryan Grant and Anquan Boldin (and apparently now Brian Westbrook) still aren't really ironed out yet. Two of fantasy football's premiere wide receivers, Chad Johnson and Brandon Marshall, are still smack in the middle of some interesting off-the-field dilemmas, giving some early-drafting owners reasons to pass on them. There are also players coming back from injuries like Marvin Harrison, Javon Walker, Deuce McAllister, Ronnie Brown, Marc Bulger, Todd Heap, Willie Parker and Kevin Jones, who will all likely be undervalued in July drafts, versus having earned the trust of fantasy owners during training camp and the preseason. Once this happens, their draft value goes up. The scenario is similar with rookies like Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones and Kevin Smith, who could all fly under the radar in July drafts, but might earn the spotlight by August, resulting in an increased price for owners to pay to snag them closer to Labor Day. Even new faces in new places like Julius Jones, Bryant Johnson and D.J. Hackett, or guys with extremely uncertain futures like Jeremy Shockey, Chris Henry and even Brett Favre will have a shot at making a huge impact in 2008 despite the odds against them. You can bet on the fact that most of the players I've named will only experience an increase in value as the season draws nearer.

Not only can owners save some coin by signing up and choosing to draft in July, but they can actually put themselves in a better position to win by drafting earlier. Anticipate who will break through their adversity and challenges, and who is worth taking a risk on. Then go sign up and draft early to take advantage of the skepticism that exists among fantasy owners in July. Watch as value falls your way in just about every round.


FFOC.com offers competitors the option of drafting live in July, August or September, and there is no limit on the number of teams that you can enter in the contest - there are even "3-team" and "10-team" discounts available. The only stipulation is that the same participant may not have more than one entry in the same 10-team league. Each team is required to start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE flex option, 1 PK and 1 defense/special teams. When all is said and done, more than $1.7 million will be awarded in prize money. The winner of each 10-team league gets a minimum of $250. For more roster requirements and league rules, along with prize details, schedule cut lines, draft information, frequently asked questions and a list of notable participants, visit FFOC.com.