Sophomore Jinx: Running Backs

July 19, 2008 3:01pm CDT

Part I - Sophomore Jinx: Quarterbacks
Part II - Sophomore Jinx - Running Backs

Part III - Sophomore Jinx - Wide Receivers


Everyone is always looking for the next big thing in fantasy football, and with such a premium placed on the running back position, being able to find that middle-to-late round sleeper becomes one of the most important aspects of building a championship team. Unlike with quarterback or wide receiver, running back is a position where a good deal of first-year players make a substantial mark. Do the names Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch ring a bell? Therefore, it's important to have a good read on each young back in the NFL if you hope to find fantasy success.

In what follows, we won't offer any predictions of future performance for running backs, but we will take a very simplistic look at most of the runners who were drafted since the millennium and track how their on-field performance either increased or decreased in their second season on the field. For the sake of simplicity, we will merely look at a player's overall production in each season to determine whether or not his performance improved or declined.

You should take note of the fact that we said "most of the runners who were drafted," and the reason for that should be clear. We don't want to break down a guy who never "made it" in the NFL. Therefore, we have chosen to focus mainly on players who were able to achieve some level of success in the NFL, even if they haven't ever really amounted to much in the fantasy game.


HISTORICAL SURVEY
* = Every back with this mark next to his name has numbers listed that exclude his true rookie season when he didn't accrue enough carries to be relevant (50 or more needed in a season).
^ = This means a player's "first" season was at least his 3rd season in the NFL. As an example, Reuben Droughns carried the ball only 40 times his first three years. Therefore, the "first season" listed for him below is actually his 4th season in the NFL.

Stats: Carries-Yards-YPC-TDs
Round: Round in which Player was drafted
Slump: Was the players second season worse than his first?
Yes = worse
No = better
-- = no change
2000 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
Jamal Lewis	309-1364-4.4-6	308-1327-4.6-6	1	--
Thomas Jones	112-373-3.3-2	112-380-3.4-5	1	--
Ron Dayne	228-770-3.4-5	180-690-3.8-7	1	--
Shaun Alexander	64-313-4.9-2	309-1318-4.3-14	1	N
Reuben Droughns^	275-1240-4.5-6	309-1232-4.0-2	3	--
Mike Anderson	297-1487-5.0-15	175-678-3.9-4	6	Y

Jamal Lewis put up two statistically identical seasons. We aren't just saying that, they were damn near identical.

Thomas Jones and Ron Dayne pulled a "Lewis" and produced extremely consistent numbers in their second seasons.

Shaun Alexander turned out to be a pretty darn good back after a lukewarm start to his career, as he exploded onto the scene in year two.

Reuben Droughns didn't get much work in seasons 1-3, but he really blew up in years 4-5. You could say he slumped in his "second season", but for the sake of this study we just said he was even.

Mike Anderson suffered a massive drop-off in his second season in Denver. In fact, it wasn't until 2005 that he eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier again. From 2001-2003, he rushed for 1,321 yards, or less than he did in his rookie season.

2001 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
LaDainian Tomlinson	339-1236-3.6-10	372-1683-4.5-14	1	N
Deuce McAllister*	325-1388-4.3-13	351-1641-4.7-8	1	N
Michael Bennett	172-682-4.0-2	255-1296-5.1-5	1	N
Anthony Thomas	278-1183-4.3-7	214-721-3.4-6	2	Y
LaMont Jordan*	84-316-3.8-3	46-190-4.1-4	2	Y
Travis Henry	213-729-3.4-4	325-1438-4.4-13	2	N
Kevan Barlow	125-512-4.1-4	145-675-4.7-4	3	N
Rudi Johnson*	215-957-4.5-9	361-1454-4.0-12	4	N
Correll Buckhalter	129-586-4.5-2	126-542-4.3-8	5	--
Derrick Blaylock^	118-539-4.6-8	17-53-3.1-0	5	Y

LT hasn't had a slump since he snapped his chin strap for the first time with the Chargers.

Deuce McAllister might have started slow, but he was fantastic in his second and third NFL seasons.

Michael Bennett was at his best during his first two years, and his second season was a career-best effort.

Anthony Thomas had the best season of his career as a rookie, though he did rebound to rush for 1,024 yards in his third season.

LaMont Jordan slumped in his "second season," with roughly half as many carries and 50% fewer yards, though he did score one more TD.

Travis Henry had his best season in year two, not that he was bad as a rookie, mind you.

Kevan Barlow slightly improved his overall numbers while upping his YPC total from 4.1 to 4.7.

Rudi Johnson had only 17 carries during his rookie season, but after that he turned into a workhorse with three straight 12-TD seasons.

Correll Buckhalter had back-to-back seasons with almost identical numbers, though neither was very exciting.

Derrick Blaylock carried the ball just 38 times in his first two seasons before having a solid "first season." He then took his game to the Jets, and he has barely been heard from, with only 42 carries in two years.

2002 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
William Green	243-887-3.7-6	142-559-3.9-1	1	Y
T.J. Duckett	130-507-3.9-4	197-779-4.0-11	1	N
DeShaun Foster	113-429-3.8-0	59-255-4.3-2	2	Y
Clinton Portis	273-1508-5.5-15	290-1591-5.5-14	2	--
Maurice Morris^	71-288-4.1-1	161-604-3.8-0	2	N
Ladell Betts	65-307-4.7-1	77-255-3.3-2	2	--
Brian Westbrook*	117-613-5.2-7	177-812-4.6-3	3	--
Najeh Davenport*	77-420-5.5-2	71-359-5.1-2	4	--
Chester Taylor*	63-276-4.4-2	160-714-4.5-4	6	N

William Green never recaptured the form of his first season.

T.J. Duckett set career highs in carries, yards and TDs in his second season, numbers he doesn't figure to surpass in Seattle this year.

DeShaun Foster continues to frustrate with injuries and uninspired play. Perhaps it's time to admit that he just wasn't as good as we thought he was.

Clinton Portis had his two most productive seasons in his first two years in the league thanks to the 29 rushing scores.

Maurice Morris didn't record his "first season" until his fourth year in the NFL. He improved in his "second season" only because of the injury that sidelined Shaun Alexander.

Ladell Betts had four very similar seasons in a row to start his career before his 2006 breakout that was the result of an injury to Portis.

Brian Westbrook had only 46 carries his rookie year, so it wasn't difficult for him to build on that effort.

Najeh Davenport has had a solid career as a backup, but he isn't fantasy relevant.

Chester Taylor almost tripled his carries in his "second season" which led to his increased totals when he was a member of the Ravens.

2003 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
Willis McGahee*	284-1128-4.0-13	324-1247-3.8-5	1	Y
Larry Johnson*	120-581-4.8-9	336-1750-5.2-20	1	N
Chris Brown	56-221-3.9-0	220-1067-4.9-6	3	N
Domanick Williams***	238-1031-4.3-8	302-1188-3.9-13	4	N
Lee Suggs	56-289-5.2-2	199-744-3.7-2	4	N
LaBrandon Toefield	53-212-4.0-2	51-169-3.3-0	4	Y

*McGahee didn't have a carry in his rookie year, as he was rehabbing a knee injury.

***Formerly Domanick Davis.

Willis McGahee is the rare example here of a player whose value decreased in year two, but he still produced solid numbers.

Larry Johnson had only 20 carries his first season before seeing a workload increase to Herculean levels.

Chris Brown's sophomore season was the only 1,000-yard effort of his career to this point.

Until he hurt his knee, Domanick Williams was a PPR league wonder.

Lee Suggs has battled injuries the past three years after a solid sophomore season.

We listed LaBrandon Toefield as "slumping," though the seasons were pretty equal other than the 50% loss in touchdowns.

2004 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
Steven Jackson	134-673-5.0-4	254-1046-4.1-8	1	N
Chris Perry*	61-279-4.6-0	10-57-5.7-0	1	Y
Kevin Jones	241-1133-4.7-5	186-664-3.6-5	1	Y
Tatum Bell	75-396-5.3-3	173-921-5.3-8	2	N
Julius Jones	197-819-4.2-7	257-993-3.9-5	2	N
Mewelde Moore	65-379-5.8-0	155-662-4.3-1	4	N
Michael Turner*	57-335-5.9-3	80-502-6.3-2	5	N

Steven Jackson started slowly, but he is now a member of the elite.

Chris Perry was injured, so it's a little unfair to list him as a victim of the sophomore jinx, but those are the breaks.

Kevin Jones matched his TD total in year two, but injuries limited him to 469 fewer yards.

Tatum Bell was given 98 more carries, which led to much greater production despite an identical YPC mark in each season (5.3).

Julius Jones scored two fewer TDs in year two, but he gained 174 more yards, so we gave him an "improved" mark.

Michael Turner will get his first chance to start this year in Atlanta after excelling in his backup role in San Diego.

2005 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
Ronnie Brown	207-907-4.4-4	241-1008-4.2-5	1	N
Cedric Benson	67-272-4.1-0	157-647-4.1-6	1	N
Carnell Williams	290-1178-4.1-6	225-798-3.5-1	1	Y
J.J. Arrington	112-370-3.3-2	14-19-1.4-0	2	Y
Frank Gore	127-608-4.8-3	312-1695-5.4-8	3	N
Vernand Morency*	96-434-4.5-2	29-108-3.7-0	3	Y
Marion Barber	138-538-3.9-5	135-654-4.8-14	4	N
Brandon Jacobs*	96-423-4.4-9	202-1009-5.0-4	4	--
Cedric Houston	81-302-3.7-2	113-374-3.3-5	6	N

Ronnie Brown built on a strong rookie season with an even better sophomore season despite dealing with injuries.

Cedric Benson saw an increase in his workload, and he produced with six TDs. Now the only six he might see is a six pack.

Cadillac Williams was the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he followed that performance up with one of the 10 most disappointing seasons of any top player in '06.

J.J. Arrington had a huge drop-off, thanks to injuries and the arrival of Edgerrin James in the Valley of the Sun.

Frank Gore produced a massive second campaign, setting a 49ers single-season record with 1,695 rushing yards.

Vernand Morency was limited to just 108 carries last season, as Ryan Grant came out of nowhere to become a backfield force.

Marion Barber produced very similar numbers his first two years, until you get to the TD column, where he produced an almost threefold increase from five to 14.

Brandon Jacobs had only 38 rushes in year one, though he did score seven times. Therefore, his "first" season was actually 2006. Though his carries and yardage doubles, he lost over 50% of his scores in what was a washout.

Cedric Houston lost some off his YPC total, but 32 more carries and three more TDs obviously paint him as one who improved in year two.

2006 DRAFT

	First Season	Second Season	Round	Slump?
Reggie Bush	155-565-3.6-6	157-581-3.7-4	1	--
Laurence Maroney	175-745-4.3-6	185-835-4.5-6	1	--
DeAngelo Williams	121-501-4.1-1	144-717-5.0-4	1	N
Joseph Addai	226-1081-4.8-7	261-1072-4.1-12	1	N
LenDale White	61-244-4.0-0	303-1110-3.7-7	2	N
Maurice Drew	166-941-5.7-13	167-768-4.6-9	2	Y
Jerious Norwood	99-633-6.4-2	103-613-6.0-1	3	--
Leon Washington	151-650-4.3-4	71-353-5.0-3	4	Y

Reggie Bush produced spot-on numbers in year one and two, though if you were in a PPR league you might have disagreed, as his reception total fell from 88 to 73.

Laurence Maroney produced 90 more yards in year two, but his YPC mark improved by only 0.2 yards and his TDs were identical.

DeAngelo Williams improved across the board in all four categories under discussion in year two.

Joseph Addai produced similar marks in years one and two on the ground, but the increase in touchdowns from seven to 12 was the big difference.

LenDale White went from insignificant to relevant in year two.

Maurice Jones-Drew carried the ball one more time in year two, but he produced 173 fewer yards and four fewer scores than during his rookie season.

Jerious Norwood rushed for 20 fewer yards and one fewer score in year two, but the numbers were almost identical to what he produced as a rookie for the Falcons.

Leon Washington was rendered a backup in year two with the Jets bringing in Thomas Jones to lead the way.


REVIEW
So what does this brief look back over the past few years show us? Here are some conclusions that the data presented.

Here is a breakdown the 55 running backs we surveyed:

Improved in Year #2 - Twenty-seven
Declined in Year #2 - Fifteen
No Change in Year #2 - Thirteen

Though this is but a cursory look at running back performance, the majority of backs improved or stood pat in their second season. Of the 55 runners who met the criteria for inclusion in the compilation of survey, 49.1% improved (27/55), while 27.3% showed no movement in either direction and basically provided the same level of performance in year two. That means it might be pretty smart to target backs who had at least 50 carries last year but fewer than 125 in their "first season." In theory, at least, these backs appear to be solid bets to improve upon their performances, though it still remains to be seen if that improvement would be enough to make them fantasy worthy. In addition to those that improved or leveled off, 23.6% had their play drop off in year two.

Most of the running backs who improved in their second season did so because of gains in playing time (a running theme in this study regardless of position). Because so many of the young backs weren't given ample playing time in their first season, saying they were "better" in year two is really a commentary on their opportunity more so than speaking to any drastic improvement in their play. Therefore, the key factor in a running back's second-year performance improving over their first season is the ability of the back to accrue more touches in his team's offense.