Nationwide Power: Week 21

July 22, 2008 11:10am CDT

Two Nationwide Regulars continue to battle for supremacy in the Fantasy Power Rankings and both of them had equally dominant runs last week at Gateway International Raceway. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski raced among the top five for nearly the entire night and ultimately crossed the finish line in second and fifth respectively, but the night was not without drama.

Late in the race, David Reutimann and Keselowski made contact that ended the No. 99's competitive night and sent the No. 88 to pit road for repairs, but the Young Gun kept his wits about him and motored to the front. A separate incident just past the halfway point of the Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250 eliminated Scott Wimmer and Mike Bliss, but both of those drivers had enough Fantasy Power momentum to keep them high in the standings.

1. Brad Keselowski
Fantasy Power Average: 5.98
Last week’s rank: 1

When handicapping an event, one of the things we look for is consistency during the last 18 races—which is approximately a rolling half season—and Keselowski has been nearly perfect in that span. Since Atlanta Motor Speedway this spring, he's failed to crack the top 15 only once and has 13 of 18 top-10s. His last nine events have netted an average finish of 5.1, which guarantees that he has consistently earned maximum points. In fact, during those races he's finished worse than eighth only a single time.

2. Joey Logano
Fantasy Power Average: 6.15
Last week’s rank: 2

Logano had a dominant car for parts of the Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250, but the team slightly missed the handle during the closing laps, which allowed Carl Edwards to win by a margin of more than six seconds. The teenager sounded much more depressed than one would expect from a driver who finished either first or second in his last three races, but fantasy owners should take heart in the fact that he is striving for absolute perfection. Logano is in the same car this week on another flat track, so his results should be about the same. If he misses the podium, it won't be by much and a top-eight finish is virtually guaranteed.

3. Clint Bowyer
Fantasy Power Average: 8.53
Last week’s rank: 5

Wimmer's problems on the track and Kyle Busch's absence from last week's lineup allowed Bowyer to jump two spots up the grid, but he also helped his case by finishing eighth, running in the top 15 all night and improving his Fantasy Power Rankings score by a little less than a point. Bowyer has been almost as consistent as Keselowski, with 16 top-15s in the last 18 races and all of those have also been top-10s, which gives him the edge in that statistic. Until they slow down, the three men at the top of this grid are place-and-hold drivers.

4. Kyle Busch
Fantasy Power Average: 9.37
Last week’s rank: 4

Busch skipped Gateway to run the Craftsman Truck Series race at Kentucky Speedway, but he will be back in action this week and he brings a ton of momentum with him. His last three Nationwide series races resulted in a third-place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, a second at Daytona International Speedway and a victory at Chicagoland Speedway. With a win on this track in 2004, there is no reason to believe that Busch won't continue his top-five ways for at least another week.

5. Carl Edwards
Fantasy Power Average: 10.02
Last week’s rank: 8

It's too soon to say that Edwards is completely back to his 2007 form after winning last week, but that was certainly a step in the right direction. In his last 10 attempts, this driver has either been great—with victories at the Milwaukee Mile and Gateway, plus three other top-fives—or mediocre with six results outside the top 10. If you are on the fence about starting him, however, the tie-breaker probably goes to his record this season on the short, flat tracks and on these he has four top-fives in four starts.

6. Scott Wimmer
Fantasy Power Average: 10.09
Last week’s rank: 3

Things get tight on restarts and it's hard to lay blame on either Wimmer or Landon Cassill for last week's incident. Either the No. 29 got loose or he was loosened by the No. 5 and ultimate contact sent him spinning toward the wall and out of the top 12 for only the second time this season. Fantasy owners don't need to be overly concerned that single incident will stall his momentum: Wimmer was seventh at O'Reilly Raceway Park last year and in four starts there, he's finished worse than 12th only once.

7. Mike Bliss
Fantasy Power Average: 10.90
Last week’s rank: 6

Bliss has not had a top-five since Bristol Motor Speedway this spring, but he's remained a great utility driver with an average finish of 11.2 in the 15 races that have intervened. That is—until last week. Bliss had been running with the leaders most of the night and it appeared that yet another top-10 was in his future until he slammed into the spinning Wimmer at Gateway. He's another driver who should rebound nicely this week, however, because he has four top-10s in five starts at ORP and the only time he's failed to finish that well, was when he failed to finish at all in 1999.

8. David Reutimann
Fantasy Power Average: 10.92
Last week’s rank: 9

Reutimann's incident with Keselowski last week was late enough in the race that it did not impact his Fantasy Power Rankings number as much as Wimmer or Bliss, but he really owes his advancement up the grid to the fact that Tony Stewart was not in attendance at Gateway. A moment of lost concentration can ruin a driver's day, but it shouldn't necessarily dissuade fantasy owners from starting him the following week. The fact still remains that every other 2008 race for Reutimann has ended in a top-20 finish.

9. David Stremme
Fantasy Power Average: 12.56
Last week’s rank: 15

Both Stremme and David Ragan earned their spot on the Fantasy Power Rankings roster this week with consistently strong runs, but they would not have been able to leap quite so high up the charts if not for the temporary defection of five drivers above them. Denny Hamlin, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Brian Vickers did not race last week and are not on the roster for the Kroger 200, which occasioned the massive move. Owners may want to pay particular attention to Stremme because he has been a little uneven in recent weeks and he has had only two top-10s and no top-fives in his last six outings.

10. David Ragan
Fantasy Power Average: 13.31
Last week’s rank: 16

On the other hand, Ragan has been one of the better values in both the Nationwide and Cup games in recent weeks. His last seven starts in the second series resulted in a sweep of the top 15 and six top-10s. An average finish of 12th during the 2008 season means that he has been a consistently strong value, but he's is often overlooked for the racers further up the Power Rankings chart. If you are looking for a differentiator, this driver could fit that bill nicely.

Honorable Mention

James Buescher deserves special mention this week because of his seventh-place finish in the Missouri-Illinois Dodge Dealers 250. That came in only his fourth career start and because of the relatively few races run prior to it, he eases into the 11th spot in our formula. It's too soon to tell if he is going to continue to be a compelling dark horse, but his other three races ended respectably in an 18th at Phoenix International Raceway, and 14ths at both Kentucky and Milwaukee. Two of those three courses were short, flat tracks, which bodes well for his chances this week at ORP.

Positions 11 and higher