Fantasy Football Impact Report: Ryan Grant

July 23, 2008 12:30pm CDT

Who would've guessed that Ryan Grant would approach 1,000 yards in 2007? After a preseason trade from the Giants to the Packers, Grant was mired behind rookies Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn at the start of the season and had a total of six carries before Week 8. After injuries and ineffectiveness paved the path for Grant's ascension to the featured role, he blew minds around the league with his strong rushing. From nowhere to the second tier of fantasy running backs, Grant has certainly had a stunning turnaround in the past year.

NFL CAREER
2005: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the New York Giants. Spent the season on the Giants' practice squad.

2006: Severely cut his left arm, injuring an artery, a tendon and the ulnar nerve. The injury threatened his career and he missed the entire season.

2007: Traded to the Packers for a future sixth-round draft pick in September. Didn't carry the ball more than three times in a game until Week 8, when he took over as the featured back for the Packers. Carried the ball 188 times for 956 yards, good for a 5.1 yards per carry average. Tallied eight rushing touchdowns and 30 receptions while fumbling once.

TEAM SCENARIO

The biggest variable in Grant's team situation is what semi-retired quarterback Brett Favre will do. Right now, it appears there's at least some chance he'll be back behind center in Green Bay.

If Favre changes his mind again and accepts his original decision to end his career with at least some tact, Aaron Rodgers will take the starting job and thus, begins a new era begins for the Packers offense. Rodgers was a high draft pick and has played adequately in the very limited time he's seen in the past few years, so it's unlikely there will be a huge drop-off for the team's passing game. If Rodgers starts, Grant might see a slightly larger workload early as Rodgers gets used to life as a starting NFL quarterback.

The Packers didn't have much change in the offensive line that was strong last year. From left to right, Chad Clifton, Junius Coston, Scott Wells, Jason Spitz and Mark Tauscher will start. The team drafted guard Josh Sitton and tackle Brenon Giacomini in the fourth and fifth round, respectively, to add depth to the group.

The wide receiver group is the strength of the offense. Greg Jennings had a breakout year and established himself as a great deep threat in his second season, picking up 53 receptions for 920 yards and 12 touchdowns. Starting on the other side is veteran Donald Driver. Driver's numbers dipped a bit from recent seasons, but he still put up his fifth 1,000-yard season in the past six years. He led the team with 82 catches and 1,048 yards, but had just two touchdowns. Ruvell Martin, James Jones and second-round pick Jordy Nelson round out the wide receiver corps.

The wide receiver group's strength directly aids Grant because defenses must always defend the Packers' pass offense first, leaving room for Grant to roam. However, there is one situation that the passing game's efficiency could be a hindrance to Grant's numbers: the red zone. With Jennings (12 touchdowns) and tight end Donald Lee (six touchdowns), the Packers certainly know how to score through the air near the stripe.

2008 UPSIDE
Grant was consistently solid last season after becoming the featured back. If you take his yards per game average during his 10 featured games (92.9) and multiply it by 16 to simulate a full season, the total is an impressive 1,486.4 yards. It's not fair to expect that total of Grant this season because of injuries, dips in performance, team situation, etc., but the bottom line is that Grant produced at the level of a top back when he was featured.

One of Grant's biggest strengths in 2007 was his consistency. He scored a touchdown in all but three of the 10 games in which he was the main guy. Defenses held him to fewer than three yards per carry in just one game and he averaged over five yards per carry in five of his 10 featured games.

For a back without a ton of speed, Grant also showed some big-play ability. He had two rushes of more than 60 yards.

2008 DOWNSIDE
Grant didn't put up particularly impressive numbers in his time at Notre Dame, averaging 3.9 yards per carry and tallying 13 touchdowns in three seasons. He wasn't drafted coming out of college and before 2007 his career peak had been making the Giants' practice squad in 2005.

Simply put, Grant's journey to stardom was unusual. It's hard to believe that a running back in the NFL could succeed as a fluke for 10 full games (and the playoffs), but Grant has never stood out as anything more than bench-warmer to NFL teams before Week 8 of last season.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Grant is a big risk/reward pick for fantasy owners. He obviously put up numbers when he got the chance, meaning owners can reasonably expect him to succeed again. However, Grant's lack of production before he got a chance through injuries last season means he may have been a bit of a fluke. There's also the fact that the Packers offense is likely to fade this year with Brett Favre (likely) gone. Assuming he gets his contract situation solved with the team before training camp, Grant will get the bulk of the carries for Green Bay. He won't maintain the pace from last season, but he should still be a great option. Draft him around the same time as Marshawn Lynch, Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis.