By The Numbers

November 21, 2008 4:21pm CST

A.J. Burnett is a Hot Commodity

Everyone is backing up the money truck and dumping bags of cash at the feet of A.J. Burnett, who is the second-best starting pitching option on the open market behind CC Sabathia. The question is, should Burnett be such a hot commodity?

The facts:

(1) Burnett has thrown more than 175 innings three times in eight years. To be fair, it's not like innings pitched is the real barometer of success, but when Livan Hernandez can toss at least 175 innings in 11-straight seasons and counting, it kind of puts Burnett's failings in context.

(2) Despite the career-best totals in IP (221.1), wins (18) and strikeouts (231), Burnett was just 51st in baseball in ERA (4.07) and 53rd in WHIP (1.34). Those aren't strong numbers by any means, and in fact they are no better than the totals put up by that noted stud Braden Looper (4.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).

Now, we're not saying that Burnett is a terrible investment - the man has undeniable skills - but really, five years at $80 million? That sure doesn't seem like money well spent.


The Mighty Mite

Dustin Pedroia was a deserving MVP after hitting .326-17-83-118-20 in 653 AB with the Sox. Some further, yet lesser-known aspects of his efforts follow.

Did you know that Pedroia was 12-for-18 (.667) in the cleanup spot this season?

Did you know that Pedroia was 8-for-16 (.500) with the bases loaded? He had 18 RBI in those 16 AB.

Did you know that Pedroia hit .353 over his final 411 AB?

Did you know that Pedroia led the league with 54 doubles?

Did you know that Pedroia, all 5-foot-9 and 180 lbs of him, posted a .493 slugging percentage, which just so happened to be a higher total than the 33 home run bat of Jack Cust?


The AL MVP Debate

While there is no debate as to the winner of the AL award, the rest of the voting was a bit controversial. Here is the list of the top-five vote getters (in order).

1) Dustin Pedroia 2) Justin Morneau 3) Kevin Youkilis 4) Joe Mauer 5) Carlos Quentin
Let's take a very simplistic approach for guys 2-5 (excluding Pedroia, because he won the award). We'll list each player merely by their ranking amongst the four batters in a series of categories: AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, hits, doubles, OBP and SLG . We'll award one point for a first-place finish down to four points for a fourth-place rank. The lower the score the better. How do the four players total out in this comparison?

18 Points - Morneau
20 Points -Youkilis
20 Points - Mauer
22 Points - Quentin

Quentin falls down the list due to missing time with that wrist injury of his, so this comparison is a bit unfair to him. Morneau comes out with the best "score," whereas Youkilis is close on his heels. Add in his solid defense and positional flexibility and Youkilis would likely make up the two-point difference with Morneau. As for Mauer, the dude plays catcher and kept up with the others in this quick review. Isn't playing catcher worth a couple of points? The bottom line is that this was one close vote, and the results could have been jumbled with little to no loss of integrity.


The NL MVP Debate

Kudos to the voters who called this race correctly by tabbing Albert Pujols the winner over Ryan Howard. Any player who commits 19 errors at first base has NO business being the MVP. This isn't a "best hitter" award, it is a Most Valuable PLAYER award. Besides, Pujols was the much better hitter anyway.

The weirdness with the MVP award had to do with how the players fell in behind these two.

Manny Ramirez played 53 games for the Dodgers (that's just less than a third of the games), and he came in fourth. CC Sabathia, another mid-season acquisition, finished sixth in the voting despite just 17 starts. Brad Lidge finished eighth because he was 41-for-41 on saves even though he pitched just 69.1 innings on the season and never once - not once - picked up a tough save (defined as coming into a game with the tying or winning run already on base). And down in 11th place is the possible fantasy MVP of 2008, Hanley Ramirez.

Ramirez finished first in the NL in runs (125), was the only 30/30 stud in the league (33 home runs, 35 stolen bases), his .400 OBP was fifth in the league and his .940 OPS was the best in baseball for any middle infielder and the fifth-best mark on the senior circuit. Oh yeah, he also plays shortstop. So tell us, how in the world does that type of performance result in an 11th place MVP finish? Seems crazy to us.


Chase Utley, Down for the Count?

In case you somehow missed it, Chase Utley will be forced to undergo hip surgery next week and the resulting rehab could end up taking anywhere from 4-6 months. That's right; the short end of the spectrum puts Utley back in April, though it seems possible that he could be out until June. What does this do to Utley's value? Good question. Given the fact that he is widely viewed as an extremely tough guy, he might be back earlier than expected, but even if that is so, you will have to think a guy who has been out of action for months will be rusty when he makes it back onto the field. Utley is still a top-five selection at second base, but it would be crazy to consider him a top-20 pick overall at this point.


HOF Bound?

Much has been made of whether or not Mike Mussina will one day be elected to the Hall of Fame. Here are some thoughts.

Mussina's career numbers: 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 2,813 K, 1.19 WHIP in 3562.2 IP.

Mussina has the second-longest streak of seasons with 10-wins in AL history at 17 (Walter Johnson, 18).

While his overall ERA may not be historically impressive on its own, it should be noted that his ERA+, or the difference between his ERA and that of the league during the seasons he pitched, was 1.23. What that means is that Mussina's ERA was 23 percent better than a league-average pitcher, not exactly chopped liver.

Of all the pitchers that ever lived, Mussina is one of just 14 hurlers who have won at least 270 games with an ERA below 3.75 and at least 2800 strikeouts.

On the downside, he won only 20 games once (his final season), and was never considered the best pitcher of his generation. In fact, only once did he finish in the top-three in Cy Young voting (1999), and he never led the league in ERA (he finished third three times - 1992, 1999 and 2000). The overall numbers are impressive, but really, they are largely the result of his longevity and not any outstanding work. Mussina was a tremendous pitcher for nearly two decades, but the Hall of Fame is for transcendent talents, isn't it?