Fine Tuning

October 4, 2008 4:58pm CDT

At the site of Robert Yates Racing’s last victory and on the weekend of Travis Kvapil’s 100th Sprint Cup Series start, the No. 28 glided around Talladega SuperSpeedway to earn Kvapil his first career pole. Now the question is will he be able to keep up with the leaders? That is a question that also will be poised to most others starting up front.

Talladega is the type of track where drivers lose the draft and fall to the rear of the field, then find a partner and go back to the front within five to 10 laps. For that reason, the top teams were less concerned about their starting position than those outside the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, and it showed. The first 11 starters are not in the championship picture, and three were outside the top-35 in owners’ points without guaranteed starting positions.

The true contenders were concerned about race trim and not qualifying on Saturday, but history suggests that the winner will start toward the front. Forty-seven events have been taken by someone who qualified inside the top-five since 1969, and only five races have been won by drivers who started outside the top-20.

The weekend may be going well for some non-Chasers, but things keep getting worse for Penske Racing South. Despite Ryan Newman winning the Daytona 500, all three of Roger Penske’s Dodges have, overall, been struggling this year. Sam Hornish Jr., who is 37th in owners’ points, had to qualify on time this week. Unfortunately for the No. 77 Dodge team, the car was not fast enough and he will miss his first race of the season. Another talented driver, Patrick Carpentier will be joining him on the sidelines this week.

Pole
#28 Travis Kvapil
187.36 mph

When this was the No. 88 Ford, Dale Jarrett took the team to victory lane at Talladega in 2005. While it is unlikely Kvapil will repeat that feat, he certainly has a shot at a top-10. The Yates Fords have been fast on the superspeedways; Kvapil finished sixth at Talladega in April and David Gilliland was fourth there in April 2007. Plus, Kvapil has finished in the top-20 in his last four starts in Alabama.

Outside Pole
#5 Casey Mears
187.30 mph

Last week at Kansas Speedway, Mears had one of his better runs all season. Although he finished a modest 14th, he was able to lead for several laps and stay close to the top-10 for much of the race. He gets to take the momentum to what has been a good track for him recently. Despite starting 29th and 36th in the past two races in Alabama, he has earned a sixth and seventh in those events.

Third
#8 Aric Almirola
187.27 mph

For a time, it appeared Almirola was going to take home his first career pole. While that did not last, he still managed to tie his career-best starting position; he started third at Martinsville Speedway in March. The No. 8 Chevrolet is legendary at Talladega after Dale Earnhardt Jr. took it to victory lane five times there from 2001-2004. Almirola will not bring back those memories, but he does not have far to go to earn a career-best at ‘Dega; his two previous attempts there resulted in a 30th and 33rd.

Fourth
#01 Regan Smith
187.18 mph

Another Dale Earnhardt, Inc. driver, Smith also tied his career-best starting position on Saturday. Earlier this year, he started fourth at Bristol Motor Speedway in August and again at Pocono Raceway in June. He went home from Pocono 28th, but he managed to hang on to a 14th at Bristol. His Talladega numbers are not bad, as he has been 24th and 21st in his two starts there, but don’t expect too much from him.

Fifth
#15 Paul Menard
187.14 mph

Dale Earnhardt, Inc. brought its “A game” to Saturday qualifying. Menard rounded out the top-five, placing three of DEI’s four Chevrolets on the first three rows when the green flag waves on Sunday. It will be the second-best start of his career; he won the pole at Daytona International Speedway in July. He had a nice run at Talladega in the spring, finishing 14th after starting 22nd, so there is hope that he will earn another top-20.

Sixth
#33 Mike Wallace
186.98 mph

Wallace was first among the “go-or-go-home” drivers, but he will not simply turn laps and head for the garage; he qualified in race trim, just like the big boys. Wallace can handle himself on a superspeedway; he has a 10th and five top-20s in his last six attempts at Talladega. Don’t forget that he was fourth in the 2007 Daytona 500 driving the No. 09 Chevrolet. As an added bonus, he will be in a Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, which is the best equipment he has had in years. Don’t be afraid to put him on the fantasy roster this week.

Seventh
#78 Joe Nemechek
186.97 mph

Once again, Nemechek showed why he is a favorite among those teams outside the top-35 in owner points on pole day. He has qualified for the last 17 consecutive races and has missed only three events in 2008. Seeing him qualify up front at Talladega is nothing new; he started from fourth in last year’s UAW-Ford 500 and held the pole in April, but he finished 32nd and 25th in those races.

Eighth
#70 Tony Raines
186.74 mph

Raines’ immediate goal was to get into the Amp Energy 500, and he did just that. Now he needs a top-20 to make things complete. That is not out of the question for him. First of all, this is a Hendrick Motorsports satellite operation. Secondly, he was ninth at Talladega last October, giving him four top-20s and two 22nds in seven career starts in Alabama. He is still searching for a full-time gig in 2009, so he needs another solid run to beef up his resume.

Ninth
#83 Brian Vickers
186.71 mph

Team Red Bull has a legitimate shot at winning this weekend. That does not necessarily make the No. 83 Toyota a favorite, but fantasy owners can expect Vickers to hang with the top 10. After all, his only Sprint Cup Series victory came at Talladega driving the No. 25 Chevrolet in 2006. This past April, he was a strong fifth there, which gave him four top-10s in the last five races in Alabama.

10th
#1 Martin Truex Jr.
186.67 mph

With Truex’s fast lap on Saturday, all four DEI teams qualified inside the top-10 for Talladega, a place where the team’s namesake dominated. Can fantasy owners expect a victory from one of the Earnhardt Chevrolets? That is unlikely. Truex was fifth there in October 2006 and 10th in April 2007, but he has finished 42nd and 37th in the last two ‘Dega events—of course, those two poor finishes came as the result of crash damage, so the key to his success will be to stay out of trouble.

Starting Grid (Averages based on two or more starts)